Optimization of demand forecast parameters

ABSTRACT

Embodiments select demand forecast parameters for a demand model for one or more items, receive historical sales data for the items on a per store basis and receive a plurality of seasonality curves for a first item. Embodiments determine a repeatability of each of the seasonality curves using a correlation of each seasonality curve over year to year demand and retain a first seasonality curve based on the repeatability. Embodiments determine a smoothness of the first seasonality curve and determine a sparsity of the first seasonality curve. Based on the determined repeatability, smoothness and sparsity, embodiments determine that the first seasonality curve is reliable and repeat the receiving the plurality of seasonality curves, determining the repeatability, determining the smoothness, and determining the sparsity to determine a plurality of reliable seasonality curves. Embodiments use the demand model and the reliable seasonality curves and determine a demand forecast for the first item.

FIELD

One embodiment is directed generally to a computer system, and inparticular to a computer system that forecasts demand for retail items.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Products are typically delivered to consumers through a network ofmanufacturers, distributors, transporters, retailers, etc. Such anetwork of facilities that together deliver products to consumers iscommonly referred to as a “supply chain” network

Suppliers of products (e.g., manufactures, vendors, retailers, etc.)often face the task of forecasting the demand for the products in orderto provide a smooth and efficient flow of the products through thesupply chain network in the presence of constantly-changing marketconditions. Overestimating the demand can result in overproduction andincreased costs associated with holding inventories (e.g., storagecosts, obsolescence, etc.). Underestimating the demand, on the otherhand, can result in lost revenues.

Further, in the retail industry, retailers need to predict their demandin the future to better manage their inventory or promotion/markdownplanning. Retailers may engage in many types of promotions to boosttheir sales. To generate an accurate forecast, a retailer has toconsider all factors/features which could impact the demand, such aspromotions, price, seasonality, weather, etc.

In general, sales forecast systems encounter problems in producing aweek-by-week forecast of sales units for retail items. The sales ofretail items in a given week is affected by many factors, such asseasonal factors, whether a discount has been applied to a retail itemduring the week, and at what point in the lifecycle of a merchandise theweek falls. One common approach to forecasting weekly sales unitsinvolves building a “causal demand model” for retail items. This demandmodel is a mathematical model that describes weekly sales units in termsof factors such as the ones listed above. The factors are known as the“demand variables” that form a demand model.

The demand model specifies mathematically how the demand variablesaffect sales units. For example, if the amount of discount is a demandvariable, historical data may show that a 50% price cut resulted in a4-fold increase in sales units (i.e., related to price elasticity). Inthis example, the demand variable is a 50% price cut and the historicalsales data is the 4-fold increase in sales. In order for the causaldemand model to be of use in forecasting sales units, it is necessary todetermine the relationship of the demand variable (50% price cut) to thesales units (4-fold increase). This relationship is referred to as the“demand parameter” associated with the demand variable.

In this example, the demand parameter may be determined to specify thatfor every 25% price reduction, sales of a particular retail item willincrease by 2-fold. With the demand parameter determined, it is thenpossible to forecast sales units by specifying the future values of thedemand variables. To continue the price cut example, the retailer mightknow that next season it will be running a 40% price cut during someweeks. The demand model will then forecast sales units for those weeksaccounting for the 40% price cut.

The demand parameter is determined by examining historical retail salesdata (known as “retail panel data”) containing price cuts for the retailitem itself, or for similar retail items. However, as noted above,several demand variables affect the sales of retail items. These severaldemand variables apply simultaneously. For example, a retailer may haveperformed the 50% price cut during the summer for a summer item, inwhich case the 4-fold increase in sales may be partially due to anincrease in seasonal demand for summer retail items during summer. Toseparate the effects of the several demand variables on sales, aregression is performed on the demand model to determine values fordemand parameters that cause the demand model to best fit retail paneldata.

Further, the quality of a sales forecast is very dependent on thequality of the input data (i.e., garbage in, garbage out). In manysituations, the historical data necessary and available for salesforecasting is less than adequate, and the resulting forecasts can domore harm than good. Some known sophisticated forecasting solutionsoffer an exception driven workflow, where such bad forecasts aredetected and a forecast analyst is prompted to review and adjust theforecast manually. Less sophisticated solutions do not catch the badnumbers, which can result in over/understock, wrong allocations, badplans, etc.

SUMMARY

Embodiments select demand forecast parameters for a demand model for oneor more items. Embodiments receive historical sales data for the itemson a per store basis and receive a plurality of seasonality curves for afirst item. Embodiments determine a repeatability of each of theseasonality curves using a correlation of each seasonality curve overyear to year demand and retain a first seasonality curve based on therepeatability. Embodiments determine a smoothness of the firstseasonality curve and determine a sparsity of the first seasonalitycurve. Based on the determined repeatability, smoothness and sparsity,embodiments determine that the first seasonality curve is reliable andrepeat the receiving the plurality of seasonality curves, determiningthe repeatability, determining the smoothness, and determining thesparsity to determine a plurality of reliable seasonality curves.Embodiments use the demand model and the reliable seasonality curves anddetermine a demand forecast for the first item. Embodiments thenelectronically send the demand forecast to an inventory managementsystem which is configured to generate shipments of additionalquantities of the first item to a plurality of retail stores based onthe demand forecast

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a computer server/system in accordance withan embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram of the functionality of a demand forecastingmodule of FIG. 1 when automatically verifying demand parameters ofseasonality and promotion effects in accordance with one embodiment.

FIG. 3 illustrates example seasonality curves for an item over twocomplete sales cycles in accordance to embodiments.

FIG. 4A illustrates promotion effect parameters over a 13-week salescycle for an item in accordance to embodiments.

FIG. 4B illustrates a regression intercept calculation for the promotioneffects of FIG. 4A in accordance with embodiments.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram of the functionality of the demand forecastingmodule of FIG. 1 when optimizing the selection of the seasonality curveand one set of promotion parameters used in a demand model in accordancewith one embodiment.

FIG. 6 illustrates two example seasonality curves over a 13-week salescycle for an item in accordance to embodiments.

FIG. 7 illustrates example promotion effects over a 13-week sales cyclefor an item in accordance to embodiments.

FIG. 8 illustrates an integrated manufacturing, inventory and logisticssystem that includes demand forecasting as disclosed herein inaccordance with one embodiment.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Embodiments automatically determine problematic demand forecast modelparameters and then remove the problematic parameters from the demandforecast and replace with reliable parameters. As a result, the demandforecast is optimized and more accurate.

Sales demand forecasting methods can roughly be grouped into judgmental,extrapolation, and causal methods. Extrapolation methods use only thetime series data of the activity itself to generate the forecast. Knownparticular techniques range from the simpler moving averages andexponential smoothing methods to the more complicated Box-Jenkinsapproach. While these known methods identify and extrapolate time seriespatterns of trend, seasonality and autocorrelation successfully, they donot take external factors such as price changes and promotion intoaccount.

Vector Auto Regression (“VAR”) models extend the Box-Jenkins methods toinclude other variables, but their complexity makes estimationdifficult. Causal forecasting involves building quantitative modelsusing inputs representing the phenomena that are believed to be driversof the outcome. The models can be as simple as a linear regression modelwith promotion variables. A starting point is a regression model withpromotion variables such as price cuts, rebates or advertisements. Theidea is that model simplicity helps managers to understand and approveor guide modification of the models, and as they become moreknowledgeable about a decision aid, they may be ready to implement moresophisticated and complex models.

Therefore, in general, the problem of estimating promotion effects ondemand and sales for retail items can be approached two ways. In onemethod, the promotion effects can be estimated directly at theitem/store level (e.g., for every individual stock keeping unit (“SKU”)at every individual retail store, also referred to as a “granularlevel”). However, the available demand and promotion data at this levelis typically insufficient, making any estimation generally unstable, andthe results generally inaccurate.

In another method, the promotion effects can be estimated at a moreaggregate level, such as for all the retail stores in an entire region.The data at this level is generally much more stable and prevalent,allowing for a robust estimation of promotion effects. However, therichness of the data at this level is also a challenge. If all of theavailable data points are considered, the generating of an estimationusing a computer can be very slow, due to the large amount of data thatneeds to be processed, and the output can be unduly influenced byoutliers. On the other hand, if only data points that pass somepre-defined criteria are included (i.e., using data filtering), theprocessing speed is increased, but the output is biased and dependent onthe pre-defined criteria.

For example, some forecasting systems pool the data from various SKUs orcategories, so that some categories with very little data are excluded.This causes the forecasting for those categories to be inaccurate.Further examples of filtering including making corrections in the datato account for unusual events such as: (1) Weather-related; (2) Inflateddemand (e.g., people stocking up on water before a storm); (3) Lowdemand (e.g., a store is closed during a hurricane resulting in lowerthan usual demand); (4) Supply chain (e.g., out of stock situationscausing merchandise to sell below usual levels); and (5) Hardware/IT(e.g., computer hardware or software failures can result in incorrectcapturing of demand). All of the above need to be caught and eithercorrected for, or made sure to be excluded from the analysis.

The following terms apply to embodiments of the invention:

The term “item” or “retail item”, as used herein, refers to merchandisesold, purchased, and/or returned in a sales environment. The terms“particular item” and “single item” are used interchangeably herein andrefer to a particular item type (e.g., to a particular type of cellulartelephone such as an iPhone 8), not to a unit item.

The terms “period”, “time period”, “retail period”, or “calendarperiod”, as used herein, refer to a unit increment of time (e.g., a7-day week) which sellers use to correlate seasonal periods from oneyear to the next in a calendar for the purposes of planning andforecasting. The terms may be used interchangeably herein.

The term “sales channel” or “location” or “retail location”, as usedherein, may refer to a physical store where an item is sold, or to anonline store via which an item is sold.

The term “sales data”, as used herein, refers to historical sales andpromotion information that has been recorded for an item that has beensold in past retail periods (e.g., over 52 weeks of the past year).Sales data may include, for example, a number of units (or a monetaryamount) of an item sold in each retail period, along with datacharacterizing one or more types of promotions for the item. Sales datamay be stored in a database, for example.

The terms “promotion” and “sales promotion” are used interchangeablyherein and refer to a particular type of promotion for an item. Someexamples of promotion components may include a price discount promotioncomponent, a television advertisement component, a radio advertisementcomponent, a newspaper advertisement component, an internetadvertisement component, an email advertisement component, and anin-store advertisement component.

The term “promotion effect” refer to a numerical value thatcharacterizes the effect (e.g., the effect on sales and profitability)of promoting an item. For example, an estimated promotion effect of 2.0may indicate that a promotion, or combination or promotions, isestimated to result in twice as many sales (a 100% increase) for anitem. Promotion effects (i.e., values) may be used in a demand forecastmodel to forecast a demand for an item. Promotion effects may also beused in a computerized inventory system to control various aspects ofinventory for an item.

Embodiments, in general, utilize the following demand model or functionis used for demand forecasting (“equation (1)”):Demand=base demand*seasonality*promo effects(*additional effects)  (1)Where “base demand” is the historical demand without taking account anyeffects or other factors, seasonality is the impact on demand based onthe season (i.e., time of year), and promo effects are the effects ondemand based on one or more promotions offered during a time period.Many demand models take into account additional effects, such as theweather. For example, if the current year's weather differssignificantly from the previous year, and from two years ago, theforecast may need corrections. For example, if the hot weather duringSummer is longer this year, the forecast for steaks and ice cream mayneed to be increased. Another additional effect can be the inventory. Ifa popular fashion is out of some sizes and/or colors, the forecast mayneed to be adjusted downward to account for the missing articles. Yetanother effect can be store count. If the retailer plans to aggressivelyexpand, and increase the number of stores by 10% in the following year,the forecast needs to be adjusted accordingly. However, for purposes ofembodiments of the invention, it is assumed that seasonality andpromotion effects have the overwhelmingly largest impact on the salesforecast. Therefore, in embodiments, after estimated seasonality andpromotion effects are determined, they are run through a series ofverifications to make sure they are reliable and accurate.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a computer server/system 10 in accordancewith an embodiment of the present invention. Although shown as a singlesystem, the functionality of system 10 can be implemented as adistributed system. Further, the functionality disclosed herein can beimplemented on separate servers or devices that may be coupled togetherover a network. Further, one or more components of system 10 may not beincluded. For example, for functionality of a server, system 10 may needto include a processor and memory, but may not include one or more ofthe other components shown in FIG. 1, such as a keyboard or display.

System 10 includes a bus 12 or other communication mechanism forcommunicating information, and a processor 22 coupled to bus 12 forprocessing information. Processor 22 may be any type of general orspecific purpose processor. System 10 further includes a memory 14 forstoring information and instructions to be executed by processor 22.Memory 14 can be comprised of any combination of random access memory(“RAM”), read only memory (“ROM”), static storage such as a magnetic oroptical disk, or any other type of computer readable media. System 10further includes a communication device 20, such as a network interfacecard, to provide access to a network. Therefore, a user may interfacewith system 10 directly, or remotely through a network, or any othermethod.

Computer readable media may be any available media that can be accessedby processor 22 and includes both volatile and nonvolatile media,removable and non-removable media, and communication media.Communication media may include computer readable instructions, datastructures, program modules, or other data in a modulated data signalsuch as a carrier wave or other transport mechanism, and includes anyinformation delivery media.

Processor 22 is further coupled via bus 12 to a display 24, such as aLiquid Crystal Display (“LCD”). A keyboard 26 and a cursor controldevice 28, such as a computer mouse, are further coupled to bus 12 toenable a user to interface with system 10.

In one embodiment, memory 14 stores software modules that providefunctionality when executed by processor 22. The modules include anoperating system 15 that provides operating system functionality forsystem 10. The modules further include a demand forecasting module 16that determines optimal demand forecast parameters for demandforecasting, and all other functionality disclosed herein. System 10 canbe part of a larger system. Therefore, system 10 can include one or moreadditional functional modules 18 to include the additionalfunctionality, such as a retail management system (e.g., the “OracleRetail Demand Forecasting System” or the “Oracle Retail Advanced ScienceEngine” (“ORASE”) from Oracle Corp.) or an enterprise resource planning(“ERP”) system. A database 17 is coupled to bus 12 to providecentralized storage for modules 16 and 18 and store customer data,product data, transactional data, etc. In one embodiment, database 17 isa relational database management system (“RDBMS”) that can useStructured Query Language (“SQL”) to manage the stored data. In oneembodiment, a specialized point of sale (“POS”) terminal 100 generatesthe transactional data and historical sales data (e.g., data concerningtransactions of each item/SKU at each retail store) used to forecastdemand. POS terminal 100 itself can include additional processingfunctionality to forecast demand in accordance with one embodiment andcan operate as a specialized demand forecasting system either by itselfor in conjunction with other components of FIG. 1.

In one embodiment, particularly when there are a large number of retailstores, a large number of items, and a large amount of historical data,database 17 is implemented as an in-memory database (“IMDB”). An IMDB isa database management system that primarily relies on main memory forcomputer data storage. It is contrasted with database management systemsthat employ a disk storage mechanism. Main memory databases are fasterthan disk-optimized databases because disk access is slower than memoryaccess, the internal optimization algorithms are simpler and executefewer CPU instructions. Accessing data in memory eliminates seek timewhen querying the data, which provides faster and more predictableperformance than disk.

In one embodiment, database 17, when implemented as a IMDB, isimplemented based on a distributed data grid. A distributed data grid isa system in which a collection of computer servers work together in oneor more clusters to manage information and related operations, such ascomputations, within a distributed or clustered environment. Adistributed data grid can be used to manage application objects and datathat are shared across the servers. A distributed data grid provides lowresponse time, high throughput, predictable scalability, continuousavailability, and information reliability. In particular examples,distributed data grids, such as, e.g., the “Oracle Coherence” data gridfrom Oracle Corp., store information in-memory to achieve higherperformance, and employ redundancy in keeping copies of that informationsynchronized across multiple servers, thus ensuring resiliency of thesystem and continued availability of the data in the event of failure ofa server.

In one embodiment, system 10 is a computing/data processing systemincluding an application or collection of distributed applications forenterprise organizations, and may also implement logistics,manufacturing, and inventory management functionality. The applicationsand computing system 10 may be configured to operate with or beimplemented as a cloud-based networking system, a software-as-a-service(“SaaS”) architecture, or other type of computing solution.

As disclosed, the known exception driven workflow for demand forecastingrelies on a human to review numbers, making it time consuming and errorprone. In contrast, embodiments automatically detect problematicforecast demand parameters that were estimated based on unreliablehistorical data points. Once the unreliable parameters are identified,embodiments remove them from the demand model, and they are replacedwith optimized parameters that may be borrowed from similar products orlocations. This greatly lowers the number of exceptions that need to bereviewed and generates more accurate forecasts.

The demand parameters can be initially unknown, and the demand model canbe configured to provide the demand parameters. By generating anaccurate determination of demand parameters, more accurate salesforecasts can be achieved.

For example, for some demand models, a 50% price cut results in a 4-foldincrease in sales units. This is not simply an arbitrary selection of avalue. Instead, the relationship between the discount demand variableand sales units is determined though a method of calculation. Inparticular, the demand parameter can be determined by examininghistorical data containing price cuts for the merchandise itself. Thedetermination process is called “estimation,” and can involve estimationroutines that examine the historical sales data and apply variousstatistical approaches.

Embodiments, after estimating the seasonality and promotion effectsparameters, perform a series automatic verifications to ensure that theyare reliable and accurate. FIG. 2 is a flow diagram of the functionalityof demand forecasting module 16 of FIG. 1 when automatically verifyingdemand parameters of seasonality and promotion effects in accordancewith one embodiment. In one embodiment, the functionality of the flowdiagram of FIG. 2 (and FIG. 5 below) is implemented by software storedin memory or other computer readable or tangible medium, and executed bya processor. In other embodiments, the functionality may be performed byhardware (e.g., through the use of an application specific integratedcircuit (“ASIC”), a programmable gate array (“PGA”), a fieldprogrammable gate array (“FPGA”), etc.), or any combination of hardwareand software.

At 202, historical sales data is received for all items for all storesfor a particular class/category of products. For example, theclass/category can be “yogurt”, “coffee” or “milk.” Each class has oneor more subclasses, all the way down to the SKU or Universal ProductCode (“UPC”) level, which would be each individual item for sale, Forexample, for the class of yogurt, a sub-class could be each brand ofyogurt, and further sub-classes could be flavor, size, type (e.g., Greekor regular), down to an SKU which would correspond to every individualdifferent type of yogurt item sold. Each SKU or UPC would be considereda discrete data point or discrete item.

Historical sales and performance data may include, for example, datarepresenting past sales and promotions of an item across a plurality ofpast retail periods, as well as the associated seasonality for each timeperiod (e.g., Spring, Summer, Fall, etc.). The historical performancedata may be segmented into retail periods of past weeks, with each pastweek having numerical values assigned to it to indicate the number ofitems sold for that week. The historical performance data may alsoinclude numerical values representing price discounts and values ofother promotion components across the retail periods, in accordance withone embodiment. The historical performance data for an item may beaccessed via network communications, in accordance with one embodiment,including being accessed from each POS terminal 100 at each retail storeand/or accessed from database 17.

At 204, seasonality curves are generated and/or received for one or moreitems based on the historical sales data. The seasonality curves aregenerated using known techniques, and embodiments of the invention thendetermine if the generated seasonality curves are reliable. In otherembodiments, the seasonality curves can be included in the historicalsales data at 202. A seasonality curve, in one embodiment, is a set ofweekly demand parameters that represent seasonal variations in thedemand for merchandise. They represent effects that are not accountedfor in the general forecasting model. Seasonality curves are mapped tospecific items based on merchandise, location, and season code, and aremodeled as a parameter over a time series.

FIG. 3 illustrates example seasonality curves for an item over twocomplete sales cycles in accordance to embodiments (year 1 at 302 andyear 2 at 304). In other embodiments, more than two sales cycles can beused. Each year includes seasonality parameters for three seasonalitycurves and an aggregate curve for each year. In general, a seasonalitycurve is at a higher intersection than a single SKU/store and coversmultiple item/store combinations because a single SKU/store would be toosparse regarding the amount of data. For example, for ice cream, mostice cream items will likely have the same seasonal pattern for all ofthe stores in Florida. The simplified example of FIG. 3 uses three timeseries to show how the seasonality curve (i.e., the aggregate curve)covers multiple item/store combinations (time series). The three timeseries could be, for the ice cream example, Vanilla ice cream at a storein Miami, Raspberry ice cream at the same store in Miami, Strawberry icecream at a store in Tampa, and so on. The relevant seasonality curvewould be the aggregate of those time series.

Three time series in FIG. 3 were chosen as a simplified example. Inreality there would a much large number. Further, 13 weeks are alsochosen as a simplified example in FIG. 3. For most items, in general,the number of weeks of a sales cycle is 52 (one year). However, forfashion items, the entire selling cycle may only last 13 week beforethey go out of style and are replaced by the next fashion item.

The numbers shown in FIG. 3 represent units sold in that period for thegiven time series. When there is a 0, there were no sales for thatperiod. The aggregate is the sum of all units for a certain period.

Using only two sales cycles, as with the example of FIG. 3, or someother predefined number of cycles, does not guarantee that the seasonalpattern is repeatable year over year. Therefore, embodiments run aseries of validity checks on the seasonality curves. Specifically, at206 of FIG. 2, repeatability using correlation of a seasonality curveover the demand in the two years (or however many sales cycles is used)is determined. If the correlation is poor, the repeatability of theseasonal pattern is not acceptable and the curve is discarded. If thecorrelation is good (higher than a threshold), the curve is kept.

For the example of FIG. 3, a correlation threshold of 0.9 is used. Thedetermined correlation year over year (“YOY”) between year 2 and year 1is 0.929099493 (where a correlation of +1 indicates perfect positivecorrelation, −1 indicates perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicatesno correlation). Therefore, the aggregate curve for year 2 correlateswith the aggregate curve for year 1 better than required by thecorrelation threshold, so it is kept as aggregate curve 2. In otherwords, because the correlation test is passed, the YOY seasonalitypattern is acceptable. Both curves 1 and 2 will be kept, but curve 2will be used for further calculations since curve 2 is based on the mostrecent demand. Typically there are two sales cycles as shown in FIG. 3.If more sales cycles are available, embodiments use the two most recentones, so there would still be curves 1 and 2 as in FIG. 3.

At 208, the smoothness of the most recent acceptable (i.e., the YOYpattern is established to be acceptable) seasonality curve of demanddata is determined (i.e., curve 2 in the example of FIG. 3). There aremany reasons for a seasonality curve to be jerky (i.e., not smooth). Forexample, if promotional demand was not accounted for, or a low/highpricing policy was in effect. A low/high pricing policy is a pricingpolicy that some retailers practice for some merchandise. For such apolicy, items do not sell when the price is high, and sell very wellwhen the price is lowered. That will be reflected as a jerky demandpattern. The opposite of such a policy is, for example, an “every daylow price” strategy.

Having spikes in seasonality in the wrong periods can greatly negativelyimpact the forecast accuracy. To avoid this, embodiments determine thestandard deviation of the seasonality curve. If it is high (i.e., abovea standard deviation threshold), the curve has too much variability andis discarded. If it is low (less than the threshold), the curve is kept.

In the example of FIG. 3, the standard deviation threshold of curve 2(i.e., the curve with the most recent demand data) is 1.5, and thecalculated standard deviation curve 2 is 0.77064119. Therefore, in thisexample curve 2 is kept. Otherwise it is discarded.

At 210, sparsity of the seasonality curve is determined, meaningembodiments determine if there is a sufficient amount of available datato estimate the seasonality. If few data points are available, theseasonality curve may be too sparse, and thus unreliable. To check forsparsity, embodiments determine the number of seasonal indices that arezero (i.e., zero sales that week), when the seasonality is expected tobe strong. If the number is high, the curve is discarded. If it isacceptable (less than a zero index threshold), the curve is kept.

In the example of FIG. 3, the zero index threshold is 5. The count ofthe values in curve 2 that are zero is 3. The curve has 3 periods thathave a zero value (weeks 1, 3 and 13). This is less than allowed by thethreshold, so this curve passes the test, and is not discarded.Otherwise, it is discarded.

The functionality of 206, 208 and 210 repeats itself for as manyseasonality curves to be “tested.” As a result of 206, 208 and 210, onlyreliable seasonality curves remain in order to generate a demand salesforecast (i.e., all unreliable seasonality curves will have beendiscarded).

Next, embodiments determine the reliability of the promotion effects.Even more than seasonality, the promotions have a significant impact ondemand. It is therefore necessary to make sure they are accurate androbust.

FIG. 4A illustrates promotion effect parameters over a 13-week salescycle for an item in accordance to embodiments. Row 404 indicateswhether a promotion exists or is active during the time period (0indicates no active promotion effect, 1 indicates an active promotioneffect or multiple active promotions during that time period). Row 402indicates the corresponding demand. A number less than 1 in row 402would indicate that the corresponding active promotion(s) do not have apositive effect on demand because of, for example, bad data orunreliable promotions.

At 212, the sparsity of the promotion effect parameters is determined.Embodiments determine if enough data points were used to estimate theimpact of promotions on demand. A data point is a number greater thanzero. If the number is too low the effects are discarded, since they arelikely unreliable. All of the promotion effect parameters are discardedsince when modeling demand it is better to not include unreliableeffects. If the number of data points is acceptable (larger than athreshold) the effects are kept.

In the example of FIG. 4A, the minimum number of data points thresholdis 10. The number of data points available is 11, because of the 13weeks, 2 weeks have a demand of 0, so the promotion effect is deemedreliable

In embodiments, the estimation of promotion impact on demand isregression-based using known linear or step-wise regression techniques.Regression works well in the majority of cases, but there are some datapatterns that are difficult to predict. For example, when an item isonly selling when it is promoted, it is not possible to detach thebaseline demand from the promotional demand in a programmatic way.Another situation when detaching is difficult is when an item ispromoted very frequently. Therefore, at 214, embodiments check for theregression intercept. During the promotion effects estimation, theregression also calculates the intercept, which is a proxy for baselinedemand. If the intercept is low, the promotion effects are unstable, andthus discarded. If the intercept is acceptable (larger than a threshold)the effects are kept and used in the demand forecast model. Theintercept (often labeled the constant) is the expected mean value of Ywhen all X=0.

FIG. 4B illustrates the regression intercept calculation for thepromotion effects of FIG. 4A in accordance with embodiments. Column 412is the demand impact from FIG. 4A and column 414 is the promotioneffects from FIG. 4A. In the example of FIG. 4B, the minimum interceptthreshold is 0.5. The calculated intercept is 0.10090909 with an Xvariable of 1.44909091. The X variable is the calculated effect of thepromotion. In this example, when the promotion is active, a 45% increasein demand is expected. Because in this example the calculated interceptis less than the minimum allowed, the promotional effects are discarded.

At 216, the demand forecast is calculated using the demand modeldisclosed above (equation 1), and all of the seasonality curves andpromotion effects that were retained after the functionality above. Thedemand forecast is for a single item at a single store or it can begenerated at the intersection where items are replenished or planned.Typically, forecasts used in replenishment are generated for a singleitem at a single store for a number of weeks or days. For planningpurposes, the forecasts can be generated for an entire style and certainregions, or even all stores.

As a result of the functionality of FIG. 2, the unreliable parametershave been identified and removed, making the demand model more accurate.Specifically, the unreliable parameters are removed. What is used arethe remaining parameters. For example, if an embodiment generates 10sets of parameters (i.e., each set can be used to generate a demandmodel), after the reliability checks of FIG. 2, 6 sets may be discarded.What is used during forecasting is one of the remaining 4 sets.Functionality disclosed below can determine which of the 4 sets is usedto optimize the model.

At 218, the determined demand forecast is used for manufacturingproduction, shipping logistics, and inventory control. The final demandforecast is sent to other specific purpose computers in one embodiment,such as an inventory control system, a manufacturing system, a shippingand logistics system, and a sales assistance system. The final demandforecast in one embodiment is in the form of individual data bits thathave been translated from the demand forecast and that are stored andtransmitted to other specialized computer systems, where they are storedand utilized by those systems. As a result, additional items may bemanufactured, stored, shipped, etc. and items can be optimally priced.

In addition to removing unreliable parameters from the demand model,embodiments select the “best” parameters so that the demand model isfurther optimized. For example, in examples where, out of 10 sets ofparameters, 6 sets are discarded as a result of the functionality ofFIG. 2, embodiments can select the best set of parameters from the 4remaining sets to select the optimized model.

Known sophisticated forecasting solutions mine historical sales data todetermine sales patterns, and promotion effects. They also use item andlocation attributes, and outside factors such as weather to create aholistic view of future demand.

There are generally two known approaches for demand forecasting. Thefirst approach uses the information disclosed above (i.e., seasonalitycurves, promotion effect parameters, and other demand model parameters)and builds a forecasting model. That model is then used to forecastdemand and is occasionally refreshed to reflect recent demand. A secondapproach is to generate multiple demand forecasting models and have aperson manually pick the one considered the most suitable.

These two approaches have drawbacks. The first approach is simple andstraightforward, but it is not rich enough to capture all demanddetails. To create the accurate forecasts needed for retail activities,having different models for different merchandise and locations is verydesired. In the second approach, because it relies on a manual selectionof the model, there is a high likelihood that the chosen model issuboptimal and time consuming. If the selection of the model wasautomated, there is still a chance that the best model is not selected.

In contrast, embodiments generate multiple demand models andautomatically discard the models that are a bad fit. For the remainingmodels, embodiments automatically select the best fit models down to thegranular item/store level.

Frequently, however, the merchandise itself has too little historicalsales data for embodiments to make a reliable estimate of the demandparameters. Moreover, there are mathematical and statistical reasons whyestimation of demand parameters based only on a single item ofmerchandise can be impractical.

To avoid the problem of too little data for an item to accuratelygenerate demand parameters, historical data of several items can bepooled together, and an overall estimate of demand parameters can bemade for all the items simultaneously. Therefore, for example, anelasticity estimate represents a type of average elasticity over all ofthe several items of merchandise whose historical data has been pooledtogether. The items of merchandise are presumed to be similar, so thatusing an average elasticity over all of the items does not seriouslymisrepresent the elasticity of any particular item.

In one embodiment, the pooling of items is done in a structured andfixed way, using a hierarchy of “pools,” each pool containing thesmaller pools below it in the hierarchy. This may be a sales hierarchy.Thus, for example, the bottom of the hierarchy may contain pools withonly a few items in it, while at the top of the hierarchy is one giantpool containing all of the merchandise sold by the retailer at any ofits stores. In between are intermediate pools or intersections such asdepartment-level pools, which contain all of the items in a specificdepartment of the retailer. The hierarchy of pools can be specific toeach retailer, and can serve as an organizational principle of theretailer's business. The “level” of a pool is the level of the poolwithin this hierarchy (for example “department level”). Each level ofthe hierarchy contains multiple pools. For example, the Department levelhas one pool for each Department. Similarly, the Sub-class level wouldhave one pool for each sub-class. The pools can also be referred to aspartitions.

In one embodiment, a lowest level is the stock keeping unit (“SKU”)level. The SKU level can have a vast number of partitions, with eachpartition being a single item. The next level can be, for example, acolor level. The color level can have numerous partitions with eachpartition including a pool of a single color, which may contain many orfew SKUs, depending on the number of items of that particular color. Thestyle level can be above the color level. Above that can be a sub-classlevel, such as “men's belts.” Then, above that level, there can be aclass level, like “men's goods.” The levels can continue with adepartment level followed by a division level. The demand parameters canbe calculated at each level.

Other structured and fixed hierarchies are also possible. For example, ageographical hierarchy of zip code, city, county, state, country, andcontinent can be used to organize points of sale. Therefore, theparticular hierarchy used as an example in this discussion should not beconsidered the only possible hierarchy.

The more items that are pooled together, the less representative theestimated demand parameter is likely to be of any particular item.Therefore, in an ideal case, estimates are produced by performing themwithin each of the smallest, lowest-level pools. Accordingly, each poolreceives its own estimate unaffected by the other pools.

Many of the lowest-level pools, however, may also have too few items ortoo little historical data to make a reliable estimate of demandparameters that is specific to the pool. Nonetheless, the items in sucha pool may need forecasts, and hence may need demand parameters.

Consequently, a structured way to enlarge the smallest pools in order toproduce demand parameters that are as representative as possible of thesmall pool may be needed. This structured way of moving to larger poolsis known as the “escalation path.” The escalation path is a sequence oflevels, starting at the lowest, indicating the hierarchy of pools to trywhen obtaining estimates for a lowest-level pool. The estimates that areto be used by the demand model may be the first ones (along theescalation path) that are reliable. Therefore, an escalation path can beused in a case where demand parameters at a given level are notreliable.

One escalation path is simply based on a rule of thumb that the bestapproximation to a lowest-level pool is the next smallest containingpool In this case, the escalation path simply consists of going fromeach level to the next higher level.

In embodiments, the pool/escalation level at which the forecast isultimately generated is typically item/store/week level. Referring tothe demand model of equation (1) above, in embodiments the base demandis generated at the same intersection as the forecast. However,seasonality and promotion effects may be estimated at multipleintersection levels or intersections. For example, there may beseasonality curves generated for intersections includingsubclass/stores, class/regions, item/channel, etc. The same holds forpromotion effects.

However, at forecasting time, for each item/store combination, only oneseasonality curve and one set of promotion parameters has to beselected. Embodiments optimize the selection of the seasonality curveand one set of promotion parameters used in the demand model.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram of the functionality of demand forecastingmodule 16 of FIG. 1 when optimizing the selection of the seasonalitycurve and one set of promotion parameters used in a demand model inaccordance with one embodiment.

At 502, historical sales data is received for all items for all storesfor a particular class/category of products. The historical sales datacan be the same data as received at 202 of FIG. 2.

At 504, a pool of demand parameters including seasonality curves andsets of promotion parameter are received. The demand parameters can beestimated parameters as disclosed above. In one embodiment, the demandparameters received are the set of demand parameters deemed reliableafter the functionality of FIG. 2 above has been executed.

In connection with the seasonality curves, embodiments consider twoaspects when determining optimized seasonality curves. First,embodiments determine how well each curve fits the item/store's sales.Second, embodiments determine if the curve itself is reliable.

Therefore, at 506, a correlation is calculated between each seasonalitycurve and the sales of the item/store combination. For example, if thereare 10 escalation levels, 10 values are recorded for the correlationsbetween sales and curves. For every seasonality curve, the fit isdetermined using backcasting (i.e., forecasting in the past) and thedemand aggregated to the escalation level.

Using fit and demand, at 508 the root mean squared error (“RMSE”) iscalculated, with the result of having 10 error calculations for everyitem store.

Finally, at 510 the score is calculated for each level using thefollowing algorithm:

${score}_{i} = \frac{{correlation}_{i}}{1 + {{penalty}*{rmse}_{i}}}$Where the penalty enables the tradeoff between the shape of the curveand the confidence one allows during the estimation of the curve. Thecriteria for determining the penalty includes whether the user wants theshape of the curve to be determinant in the selection of the curve, orits reliability. The value of the penalty balances the two criteria.Values can change from implementation to implementation, but typicalvalues are between 1 and 5.

When the 10 scores are available, embodiments automatically pick theseasonality curve corresponding to the highest score.

FIG. 6 illustrates two example seasonality curves over a 13-week salescycle for an item in accordance to embodiments. In the example of FIG.6, at 506 the correlation between the sales and seasonality curves isdetermined. The correlation of curve 1 is calculated as 0.709224. Thecorrelation of curve 2 is calculated as 0.753982. Then, at 508 the RMSEfor curve 1 is calculated as 2.5, and the RMSE for curve 2 is calculatedas 3.

Next at 510, the penalty is set, which is a coefficient that weights theerrors vs. the correlation. In the example, the penalty is set to 1.5.Then, using the score algorithm disclosed above, the score of curve 1 iscalculated at 0.14931 and the score of curve 2 is calculated at0.137088.

Based on these results, curve 1 “wins” because, although it has a lowercorrelation (i.e., has a shape less similar to the sales of the item),there is a higher confidence in its estimated value because it has alower RMSE, making the overall score higher than curve 2. A lower RMSEmeans that the YOY demand pattern is more stable, giving confidence thatthe pattern will repeat in the future.

Next, embodiments determine the optimal promotion effects. As with theseasonality curves, the promotion effects can be estimated at variousintersections, or pooling levels. For example, assume there are 7pooling levels. The metrics available to make the decision as to whichpromotion effects are the “best”, having been received at 502 include:

-   -   historical demand for each item/store;    -   historical seasonal demand (with promotion demand removed) for        each item/store; and    -   7 sets of promo effects.

With this information, at 512, the promotional effects are applied ontop of the historical seasonal demand to simulate the historical demand,with the result having 7 such metrics, one corresponding to each poolinglevel. At 514, an error metric is determined for each level by comparingthe simulated historical demand with the real historical demand. In oneembodiment, the error metric used is MAPE. Other error metrics caninclude Root mean squared error, Mean absolute error, Mean error,Absolute percentage error, etc. At 516, the promotion effects generatedat the pooling level that yield the lowest MAPE (or other metric) isselected.

FIG. 7 illustrates example promotion effects over a 13-week sales cyclefor an item in accordance to embodiments. In row 702, a “0” indicatesthe promotion is not active and a “1” indicates the promotion is active.The simplified example of FIG. 7 is for one promotion or one event. Theeffect on demand that this promotion has is estimated at two differentintersection, thus providing two effects. Embodiments determine which ofthese two effects to pick.

The example of FIG. 7 illustrate the methodology by using promotioneffects coming from two different sources (i.e., two differentintersection levels), and showing how embodiments picks the one thatfits real demand best (i.e., optimized). In embodiments, multiplepromotion effects for one or more items can be applied during the sametime period.

First, at 512, the promotion effects (in the example of FIG. 7, onlyweeks 1 and 9 have promotion effects on) are applied per Equation 1above (simplified as promoted demand=non-promoted demand*promo effect).In the example of FIG. 7, the promotion effect from pooling level 1 is1.6, and the promotion effect from pooling level 2 is 2.

The promotion demand using the promotion effect from pooling level 1 is19.2 (week 5) and 20 (week 9). The promotion demand using the promotioneffect from pooling level 2 is 24 (week 5) and 25 (week 9). Thepromotion demand is determined using equation 1 above, where thenon-promoted demand is multiplied with the effect.

The calculated MAPE at 514 for pooling level 1 is 6.545455 (calculatedas 100/2*(ABS(20−19.2)/20+ABS(22−20)/22). The calculated MAPE forpooling level 1 is 16.81818 (calculated as100/2*(ABS(20−24)/20+ABS(22−25)/22.

Based on the above, at 516, because the error yield by the effectscalculated at pooling level 1 is less than for pooling level 2, thelevel 1 promotion effects are selected.

FIG. 7 illustrates a simple example where there is one promotion effectestimated at two pooling levels. In actual applications, there typicallywill be sets of 10+ promotions defined, and each set will be estimatedat every pooling level—typically 5 or even more levels, and the outcomeis the set of promotion effects coming from one of the 10 levels.

At 518, the demand forecast is calculated using the demand modeldisclosed above, and all of the seasonality curves and promotion effectsthat were retained after the functionality above.

At 520, the determined demand forecast is used for manufacturingproduction, shipping logistics, and inventory control. The final demandforecast is sent to other specific purpose computers in one embodiment,such as an inventory control system, a manufacturing system, a shippingand logistics system, and a sales assistance system. The final demandforecast in one embodiment is in the form of individual data bits thathave been translated from the demand forecast and that are stored andtransmitted to other specialized computer systems, where they are storedand utilized by those systems. As a result, additional items may bemanufactured, stored, shipped, etc. and items can be optimally priced.

As disclosed, one goal of embodiments is to select the relevant featuresfor items to ultimately maximize forecast accuracy. A good forecastgenerally receives no credit. Items are always available and they sellat the full price, as opposed to discounted prices. Inventory levelsshould not be too high, so retailers do not have money tied up ininventory. Retailers and suppliers should be able to reliably planworkforce and production capacity.

However, if the forecast is wrong (i.e., not accurate) the picturechanges dramatically. The effects can have a negative impact on manybusiness areas. For example, if the forecast is too low, fewer thanneeded products arrive at the retailer and they sell out. An out ofstock situation impacts a retailer through lost revenue and reducedcustomer satisfaction. A low forecast also impacts suppliers, which haveto scale down production, and review their need for the currentworkforce.

If the forecast is too high, there are also negative effects. Theretailers will order more than they can sell. If the products areperishable, they may go bad, increasing wastage. Even if they are notperishable, the retailers may sell the extra items at discounted prices,which negatively affects revenue. The retailers may otherwise return themerchandise to the suppliers. This impacts the suppliers because theyhave extra products for which there is no demand. Further, themanufacturers may waste time and money producing the wrong thing, whichnegatively affects the supplier's revenue.

FIG. 8 illustrates an integrated manufacturing, inventory and logisticssystem 800 that includes demand forecasting as disclosed herein inaccordance with one embodiment. As shown in FIG. 8, system 800 caninclude a product forecasting system 870 that forecasts future productdemand and in some instances forecasts and/or considers future demandfor hundreds of thousands of products, or in some applications tens ofmillions or more products at one or more retail stores 801-804.Forecasting system 870 is in communication through a cloud network 850or other type of communications network with one or more inventorysystems 820 and one or more manufacturing systems 880.

Forecasting system 870 generates demand forecasting by implementing thefunctionality disclosed in conjunction with FIGS. 2 and 5 above.Inventory system 820 stores inventory and provides transportationlogistics to deliver items to stores 801-804 using trucks 810-813 orsome other transportation mechanisms. Inventory system 820 in oneembodiment implements an Enterprise Resource Planning (“ERP”)specialized computer system or a specialized inventory control systemthat uses input from forecasting system 810 to determine levels ofinventories and the amount and timing of the delivery of items to stores801-804.

Manufacturing system 880 manufactures items to be sent to inventorysystem 820 and provides transportation logistics to deliver the items toinventory system 820 using a truck 881 or some other transportationmechanisms. Manufacturing system 880 in one embodiment implements an ERPspecialized computer system or a specialized manufacturing system thatuses input from forecasting system 870 to determine an amount of itemsto manufacture, inventory of resources that are used for themanufacturing, and the amount and timing of the delivery of items toinventory system 820.

Forecasting system 870 can utilize information from inventory system820, a sales tracking system (not shown) and/or databases in forecastingdemand for products. In forecasting demand, forecasting system 870attempts to predict uncharacteristic demand of one or more products thatresults from events, weather, social demand, economic factors and otherfactors. Tens, to hundreds to thousands of different variables may betracked that can have an effect on the demand of one or more products.Changes in these variables can result in uncharacteristic demands. Forexample, changes in forecasted weather can be tracked, and one or morevariables associated with the forecasted weather can be used indetermining whether such a change is weather may have an effect ondemand, and may further forecast a change in demand.

In general, the elements of FIG. 8 perform sales, manufacturing, orconsumption of inventory. Retail locations/stores 801-804 for directconsumer sales exhibit the most volatile inventory patterns, due to therandom nature and external factors affecting sales. However,manufacturing facilities and sites that consume inventory (such asproduct integrators, internet shippers, etc. products used in the localfacility) also benefit from demand forecasting as disclosed herein. Asdisclosed, each retail location 801-804 sends sales data and historicforecast data to forecasting system 870. The sales data includesinventory depletion statistics for each item, or SKU/UPC for each salesperiod, typically days, in the previous sales cycles (i.e. weeks),typically 4-7 weeks of inventory cycles.

Forecasting system 870 stores the sales data in a repository 872, andemploys the sales data for generating orders to replenish inventory. Theorders include a set of items and a quantity for each item formaintaining the inventory level at a store 801-804.

Many retail ordering schemes rely on days of the week for sales periodsand sales cycles. In one configuration, in an inventory managementenvironment having inventory statistics, in which the inventorystatistics are specific to each day of the week, inventory system 820determines target inventory levels by gathering, for each day of theweek, inventory level statistics from previous sales. Embodimentscompute, based on the inventory level statistics, an inventory level foreach day of the week, such that the safety stock accommodates variationsin inventory between the different days of the week. Embodiments render,for each of a plurality of items, a stocking level indicative of thetarget inventory level including the safety stock for each day of theweek. Embodiments compute an ordering quantity based on a lead time suchthat the ordered quantity arrives to satisfy the rendered stocking levelon the determined day of the week. Identifying the actual stock levelsincludes identifying stock levels on the day of the week from previousweeks from the history data, thus focusing on the same day of the weekover time, rather than an average of all days in the week.

In particular configurations, the disclosed embodiments may be employedin conjunction with specialized and/or particularly high volume retailsales environments. In large logistics and distribution operations, itis beneficial to load trucks as full as possible, and in the eventdeferral of items to a successive trip is needed, to select those itemswhich will have a least likely chance of interrupting sales activity.Accordingly, embodiments are operable in conjunction with POS system 100to identify high velocity or high turnover items that tend to be soldand replenished faster than other items. A UPC bar code symbol orradio-frequency identification (“RFID”) on an item includes a field,designation or value, that alone or in conjunction with a databaselookup, designates an item as a high velocity item appropriate forsafety stock treatment as defined herein.

A high velocity item may be accommodated by identifying, for each of aplurality of items represented in an inventory database, a field for aproduct identifier and a field denoting a safety stock for the item, anddetermining, for each of the product identifiers, a product segmentationfield based on product velocity indicative of increased productreplenishment demands resulting from a sales volume. The disclosedembodiments determine based on the velocity field, whether to compute asafety stock, i.e. whether the overhead and burden to resupply accordingto the safety stock is worthwhile given the product throughput.

In other embodiments, supply logistics may invoke a delivery frequencyhigher than one truck a day, hence triggering a resupply window with ahigher granularity. In such a case, the safety stock may be morespecific than an individual day, such as a Monday AM and Monday PM, orto designate multiple delivery or time windows within a particular dayof the week, such as 7:00 AM, 11:00 AM and 4:00 PM.

Embodiments, including the generated demand forecast, may be employed inimplementing supply logistics and designating deliveries (i.e., trucks)and manifest (i.e., contained items) in accordance with demand andprofit margins of the transported items. High velocity items might bedeemed to have priority space on a particular delivery, but couldfurther be selected based on a profit margin or markup on the includeditems, and items with the greatest revenue generation potential selectedfor inclusion.

In such a product inventory shipping environment that uses the demandforecast disclosed herein and has a plurality of transport vehicles,each vehicle (e.g., truck) is configured for receiving a fixed payloadof items for delivery to a sales location for inventory replenishment.Embodiments can provide guidance in loading a delivery vehicle, by, foreach item of a plurality of items including a first item and a seconditem, computing a safety stock and determining, based on the computedsafety stock of the first item and the second item, a quantity of eachof the first item and the second item to be loaded into the deliveryvehicle. Embodiments recompute a truck loading quantity based on thesafety stock if insufficient space is available in the delivery vehiclefor the determined quantity of the first item and the second item,meaning that certain items would need to be omitted and deferred to asuccessive delivery.

As disclosed, embodiments generate a demand model by automaticallydetermining reliable seasonality curves and promotion effects, anddiscarding unreliable parameters. As a result, the demand model will beoptimized for forecasting demand based on the existing historical data.

Several embodiments are specifically illustrated and/or describedherein. However, it will be appreciated that modifications andvariations of the disclosed embodiments are covered by the aboveteachings and within the purview of the appended claims withoutdeparting from the spirit and intended scope of the invention.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method of selecting demand forecast parametersfor a demand model for one or more items, the method comprising:receiving historical sales data for the items on a per store basis;receiving a plurality of seasonality curves for a first item, each ofthe seasonality curves representing seasonal variations for demand forthe first item; determining a repeatability of each of the seasonalitycurves using a correlation of each seasonality curve over year to yeardemand and retaining a first seasonality curve based on therepeatability; determining a smoothness of the first seasonality curvecomprising determining a standard deviation of the first seasonalitycurve; determining a sparsity of the first seasonality curve comprisingdetermining if the first seasonality curve comprises a number of datapoints that exceed a predetermined threshold; based on the determinedrepeatability, smoothness and sparsity, determine that the firstseasonality curve is reliable; repeating the receiving the plurality ofseasonality curves, determining the repeatability, determining thesmoothness, and determining the sparsity to determine a plurality ofreliable seasonality curves; using the demand model and the reliableseasonality curves, determining a demand forecast for the first item,the demand forecast comprising a prediction of further sales data forthe first item; electronically sending the demand forecast to aninventory management system; and at the inventory management system,based on the received demand forecast, electronically determining anamount of inventory for the item for a first store of a plurality ofstores and causing the amount of inventory to be sent, using atransportation mechanism, to the first store.
 2. The method of claim 1,wherein the historical sales data comprises a plurality of promotioneffects for the first item, further comprising: determining a sparsityof the promotion effects; determining a regression intercept of thepromotion effects; based on the sparsity and the regression intercept ofthe promotion effects, determining a plurality of reliable promotioneffects; and using the demand model, the reliable seasonality curves,and the reliable promotion effects, determining the demand forecast forthe first item.
 3. The method of claim 2, wherein each of theseasonality curves are aggregate seasonality curves comprisingparameters for other items in addition to the first item.
 4. The methodof claim 2, wherein each of the seasonality curves comprise at least twosales cycles of the first item.
 5. The method of claim 2, furthercomprising: based on the demand forecast, increasing an amount ofmanufacturing of the first item and, in response to the increased amountof manufacturing, shipping the increased amount of first items to aplurality of different retail stores.
 6. The method of claim 2, whereinthe demand forecast consists of a base demand, the reliable seasonalitycurves, and the reliable promotion effects.
 7. The method of claim 1,further comprising: generating a best fit model as the demand model, theselecting comprising: receiving a plurality of sets of promotionaleffects for the first item, each set corresponding to a differentpooling level of the first item; simulating an historical demand at eachpooling level; determining an error metric at each pooling level; usingthe set of promotional effects that correspond to the pooling level withthe lowest metric error as an optimized set of promotional effects; andgenerating the best fit model with the optimized set of promotionaleffects while discarding the remaining sets of promotional effects.
 8. Anon-transitory computer-readable medium having instructions storedthereon that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor todetermine reliable demand forecast parameters for a demand model for oneor more items, comprising: receiving historical sales data for the itemson a per store basis; receiving a plurality of seasonality curves for afirst item, each of the seasonality curves representing seasonalvariations for demand for the first item; determining a repeatability ofeach of the seasonality curves using a correlation of each seasonalitycurve over year to year demand and retaining a first seasonality curvebased on the repeatability; determining a smoothness of the firstseasonality curve comprising determining a standard deviation of thefirst seasonality curve; determining a sparsity of the first seasonalitycurve comprising determining if the first seasonality curve comprises anumber of data points that exceed a predetermined threshold; based onthe determined repeatability, smoothness and sparsity, determine thatthe first seasonality curve is reliable; repeating the receiving theplurality of seasonality curves, determining the repeatability,determining the smoothness, and determining the sparsity to determine aplurality of reliable seasonality curves; using the demand model and thereliable seasonality curves, determining a demand forecast for the firstitem, the demand forecast comprising a prediction of further sales datafor the first item; electronically sending the demand forecast to aninventory management system; and at the inventory management system,based on the received demand forecast, electronically determining anamount of inventory for the item for a first store of a plurality ofstores and causing the amount of inventory to be sent, using atransportation mechanism, to the first store.
 9. The non-transitorycomputer-readable medium of claim 8, wherein the historical sales datacomprises a plurality of promotion effects for the first item, furthercomprising: determining a sparsity of the promotion effects; determininga regression intercept of the promotion effects; based on the sparsityand the regression intercept of the promotion effects, determining aplurality of reliable promotion effects; and using the demand model, thereliable seasonality curves, and the reliable promotion effects,determining the demand forecast for the first item.
 10. Thenon-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9, wherein each of theseasonality curves are aggregate seasonality curves comprisingparameters for other items in addition to the first item.
 11. Thenon-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9, wherein each of theseasonality curves comprise at least two sales cycles of the first item.12. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9, furthercomprising: based on the demand forecast, causing an increase in anamount of manufacturing of the first item and, in response to theincreased amount of manufacturing, shipping the increased amount offirst items to a plurality of different retail stores.
 13. Thenon-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 9, wherein the demandforecast consists of a base demand, the reliable seasonality curves, andthe reliable promotion effects.
 14. The non-transitory computer-readablemedium of claim 8, further comprising: generating a best fit model asthe demand model, the selecting comprising: receiving a plurality ofsets of promotional effects for the first item, each set correspondingto a different pooling level of the first item; simulating an historicaldemand at each pooling level; determining an error metric at eachpooling level; using the set of promotional effects that correspond tothe pooling level with the lowest metric error as an optimized set ofpromotional effects; and generating the best fit model with theoptimized set of promotional effects while discarding the remaining setsof promotional effects.
 15. A retail item demand forecasting systemcomprising: one or more processors coupled to one or more point of salesystems, the processors receiving historical sales data for retail itemson a per store basis; the processors further: receiving a plurality ofseasonality curves for a first item, each of the seasonality curvesrepresenting seasonal variations for demand for the first item;determining a repeatability of each of the seasonality curves using acorrelation of each seasonality curve over year to year demand andretaining a first seasonality curve based on the repeatability;determining a smoothness of the first seasonality curve comprisingdetermining a standard deviation of the first seasonality curve;determining a sparsity of the first seasonality curve comprisingdetermining if the first seasonality curve comprises a number of datapoints that exceed a predetermined threshold; based on the determinedrepeatability, smoothness and sparsity, determine that the firstseasonality curve is reliable; repeating the receiving the plurality ofseasonality curves, determining the repeatability, determining thesmoothness, and determining the sparsity to determine a plurality ofreliable seasonality curves; using the demand model and the reliableseasonality curves, determining a demand forecast for the first item,the demand forecast comprising a prediction of further sales data forthe first item; electronically sending the demand forecast to aninventory management system; and at the inventory management system,based on the received demand forecast, electronically determining anamount of inventory for the item for a first store of a plurality ofstores and causing the amount of inventory to be sent, using atransportation mechanism, to the first store.
 16. The system of claim15, wherein the historical sales data comprises a plurality of promotioneffects for the first item, the processors further: determining asparsity of the promotion effects; determining a regression intercept ofthe promotion effects; based on the sparsity and the regressionintercept of the promotion effects, determining a plurality of reliablepromotion effects; and using the demand model, the reliable seasonalitycurves, and the reliable promotion effects, determining the demandforecast for the first item.
 17. The system of claim 16, wherein each ofthe seasonality curves are aggregate seasonality curves comprisingparameters for other items in addition to the first item.
 18. The systemof claim 16, the processors further: based on the demand forecast,causing an increase in an amount of manufacturing of the first item and,in response to the increased amount of manufacturing, causing a shippingof the increased amount of first items to a plurality of differentretail stores.
 19. The system of claim 16, wherein the demand forecastconsists of a base demand, the reliable seasonality curves, and thereliable promotion effects.
 20. The system of claim 15, the processorsfurther: generating a best fit model as the demand model, the selectingcomprising: receiving a plurality of sets of promotional effects for thefirst item, each set corresponding to a different pooling level of thefirst item; simulating an historical demand at each pooling level;determining an error metric at each pooling level; using the set ofpromotional effects that correspond to the pooling level with the lowestmetric error as an optimized set of promotional effects; and generatingthe best fit model with the optimized set of promotional effects whilediscarding the remaining sets of promotional effects.